Moonwalker Weekly // July 2, 2025

Jul 02, 2025

Dear Investors,

Welcome back to this week’s Investor Update from Moonwalker Capital, coming to you from the Hamptons!

Please don’t hesitate to reach out if you are in the neighbourhood :)

📈 Liquidity Surge, Political Fracture & The Circle Signal

Since April, the S&P 500 is up 28%, Nasdaq 100 +18%—gains driven not by earnings, but by liquidity. U.S. public equity market cap is now $63.8 trillion, bigger than China, Europe, Japan, and India combined. The trigger? Global M2 turned positive in May after 18 months of contraction, igniting flows into AI infrastructure, megacap buybacks, and BTC treasuries.

But beneath the surface, sentiment remains fractured.

Real wages are stagnant, NYC rent is up 8% YoY, and inflation-adjusted income is falling for most Americans. Since COVID, the wealth divide hasn’t just widened—it’s hardened into two economies: one defined by compounding returns, the other by compounding costs.

And that fracture is now showing up in politics.

🗳️ Socialism in NYC? Wealth Fracture Goes Political

Last month, 33-year-old socialist Zohran Mamdani defeated Andrew Cuomo in the NYC Democratic mayoral primary. Mamdani’s platform—rent freezes, wealth redistribution, public grocery stores—may sound radical, but it’s rational in a city where financial mobility is out of reach for most.

Polymarket gives Mamdani a 70% chance to win in November. If elected, NYC could become the largest "socialist experiment" in the country—and a test case for policies that may scale elsewhere as inequality deepens.

The takeaway: this isn’t about one candidate. It’s about the collapse of institutional trust and the emergence of a political class that sees wealth concentration as untenable.

📈 The Circle IPO: Most Successful in Decades

On June 5, Circle (CRCL) IPO’d at $31/share ($6.8B valuation). It opened at $69, closed day one at $83, and soared to $300 within 10 days—the best-performing IPO since 1980.

Even after pulling back to $180 by month-end, CRCL remains +580% from IPO price and valued at $58B, bigger than FedEx or Aflac.

📊 Valuation multiples:

34x revenue
203x EBITDA
Compare to Nvidia: 63x / 111x, with higher growth

What this tells us:

TradFi wants real crypto PMF (product-market-fit), not altcoins.
Investors are starved for compliant, revenue-generating crypto businesses.
With the GENIUS bill pending, Circle timed its IPO flawlessly—Trump, pro-crypto regulators, and dollar dominance narratives all aligned.

Next up? Kraken, Gemini, Bullish—each testing the IPO window. If Bullish makes it public, the joke goes, “sell everything”—there are no marginal buyers left.

Moonwalker Trades:

We shorted CRCL 0.00%↑ from $272 to $178
We have recently entered a Kraken pre-IPO position on the secondary market

🪙 BTC Price Action: Holding 100K, But Soft

BTC ended June +2%, underperforming NASDAQ (+6%) and S&P (+5%)
Two successful tests of $100K support, but also formed lower highs and lower lows
Could be forming a descending triangle

On-chain metrics are flashing caution:

MVRV Z-score hasn't spiked—no euphoric blowoff yet
RHODL ratio (short-term vs. long-term holders) remains elevated, but not alarming

In short: BTC’s structure no longer resembles halving-cycle dynamics. It’s now tracking liquidity flows and macro inputs—not on-chain patterns.

🔊 Volatility Compression: BTC Has Grown Up

A shocking stat: IBIT’s 60-day vol is now just 1.3x SPX, down from 5.7x a year ago.

That means:

BTC is stabilizing as a macro asset
ETFs, options, and institutional flows are taming volatility
Store of value status is no longer theoretical

BTC is now closer to gold than to dog coins—both in volatility and allocation strategy.

💵 Dollar Collapse + Rate Politics

DXY is down 10.8% YTD—its largest first-half drop since 1973
Trump wants the dollar weaker, and he may get it
Seasonality is strong for equities in July, historically a bullish tailwind for crypto

🔮 Market Outlook – What's Next?

Global M2 is rising again and points to higher BTC when lagged 71 days—per the most-shared chart on Crypto Twitter. But don’t expect $200K soon. BTC may now be in a longer, flatter uptrend, without the blowoff tops of past cycles.

Add to that:

AI and robotics will concentrate capital into fewer hands
Inequality will worsen, and social unrest may rise
Governments may eventually turn to UBI as a policy solution
But until then, risk assets may still melt up

🧨 Key Risk: The 2027-28 Convertible Wall

Corporate BTC buying has been funded with $12B of sub-1% convertibles, most maturing 2027–2031. If BTC stalls and 10Y rates stay high, those bonds could fall below 80 cents, shutting the issuance window.

Result?

Treasuries may sell BTC instead of adding
Premiums on wrappers collapse (just like GBTC post-ETF)
The trade: Long BTC / Spot ETF vs. short overpriced wrappers

🏛️ On-Chain Everything: Stocks, Stables, and Settlement

Robinhood launched 24/5 tokenized equities in the EU (via Arbitrum → Robinhood Chain)
Kraken has launched an onchain equities offering
Gemini and Dinari followed suit—S&P names, real-time settlement
ETH, SOL, ARB will likely benefit from equity migration to on-chain rails

Upcoming regulation (July):

GENIUS Act – Stablecoin rules
Clarity Act – Market structure
Big Beautiful Bill – Tax deferrals on staking + sub-$600 crypto tx exemptions

Implication:
On-chain financial rails are going mainstream. Brokers without blockchain infra will be left behind.

Moonwalker Capital: Crypto Equities, Institutional Edge

We are excited to share that both FUND I and FUND II continue on a strong upward trajectory this quarter.

Current private deals for BOTH funds:

Kindly / Nakamoto Holdings Merger – Led by David Bailey
American Bitcoin Corp / Gryphon Merger – Backed by Eric Trump and the Hut8 team
Kraken - Moonwalker Team is in DD process to acquire pre-IPO shares for Kraken

🔥 Top News

This concludes this week’s Moonwalker Capital letter.

Until next time,

Moonwalker Capital Team

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